Record 7-2 +$360
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Alex Morono 17-6 vs Rhys McKee 10-3-1
Morono is a grizzled UFC vet with experience and he looks to come out and take advantage of that experience against the relative newcomer McKee. McKee stepped in on very short notice during his UFC debut and was absolutely destroyed by Khamzat Chimaev. Throw that fight out. Coming into this fight, McKee now has had time to prepare and train in a full camp.
Morono has had some good wins in the UFC and possesses a good submission game. Morono is full of pride though and if he thinks he can KO a guy, he’ll stand and trade which is exactly what McKee would welcome in this fight. McKee isn’t awful. He has a strong standup game and will jab Morono repeatedly.
I see Morono getting frustrated and taking this fight to the ground and either subbing McKee out or I see it standing and McKee knocking a very chinny Morono out. McKee is a live dog in this spot.
The Pick: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance -130 (3.5 out of 5)
Rafael Dos Anjos 29-13 vs Paul Felder 17-5
36-year-old Paul Felder comes into this fight on extremely short notice against former lightweight champ 36-year-old Rafael Dos Anjos.
What stands out to me is Dos Anjos comes into this fight with absolutely zero threat of a takedown or ground game from the Irish Dragon. Throughout his career, Dos Anjos has fought the best of the best both in the standup and on the ground. Look at the list, he’s fought Leon Edwards, Kevin Lee, Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Robbie Lawler, Tony Ferguson, Donald Cerrone, Eddie Alvarez, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and the list goes on and on. The guy has never ducked a fight and through that murder’s row of competition, he became a champ.
Dos Anjos is the better fighter here and has the superior cardio and I fully expect him to take Felder down and grind out this victory. I originally thought Paul Felder was worth a shot here but coming in on short notice, against a guy at 155 where Dos Anjos has seen much success, I just back Felder with a short camp. My play is Dos Anjos and I don’t necessarily expect an exciting fight. I expect a fight like when we saw Dos Anjos dominate Kevin Lee.
The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos -185 by unanimous decision (3.5 out of 5)
MORE DOGS TO PLAY ON THIS CARD: Jose Quinonez, Roque Martinez
(Dogs are 6-3-1 YTD +$480)
Disclaimer: Predicting winners of UFC fights is extremely difficult. There are many factors including weight cuts, personal problems, injuries, bad coaching and other variables that can impact the performance of a fighter and most of the time, we just don’t know these issues before a fight. I will put a confidence level on each prediction, but I caution you against becoming overconfident in predicting the outcomes of MMA fights. Bottom line, this is the fight game and anything can happen so tread lightly.