Disclaimer: Predicting winners of UFC fights is extremely difficult. There are many factors including weight cuts, personal problems, injuries, bad coaching and other variables that can impact the performance of a fighter and most of the time, we just don’t know these issues before a fight. I will put a confidence level on each prediction, but I caution you against becoming overconfident in predicting the outcomes of MMA fights. Bottom line, this is the fight game and anything can happen so tread lightly.
Record: 6-1 +$560
Yan Xiaonan 12-1 vs Claudia Gadelha 18-4
31-year-old Yan Xiaonan takes on 31-year-old Claudia Gadelha in a Women’s Strawweight bout.
Yan is a wizard on the feet and comes into this fight with high confidence having won 10 straight bouts. Her cardio is top notch, her footwork is amazing and she moves well. It’s pretty clear she’s received some excellent striking instruction and continues to improve each match.
On the other hand, I believe Claudia Gadelha is on the decline. She typically starts strong and gets a takedown or two but over the last few years, she tends to slow and decline in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. She can’t do this against Yan.
Yan has the clear striking advantage here. What I see happening is Gadelha getting a takedown in round one but slowly fading and when she does, Yan is going to quickly ramp up her striking game and I can see a 2nd or 3rd round KO as Claudia fades.
Yan is going to jab Gadelha for the first two minutes of the 1st round, Gadelha is going to get desperate and go for the takedown and she may get it. Claudia is then going to get tired and Yan will not get tired and put it on Claudia from that point on. I see Yan cruising here to her 11th straight win.
The Pick: Yan Xiaonan -150 by KO or Decision (3.5 out of 5)
Tanner Boser 19-6-1 vs Andrei Arlovski 29-19
I understand, this play is juicy, but I feel good about it.
Like Yan, Boser comes into this Heavyweight bout with all the confidence in the world. Boser is not your typical Heavyweight. He’s not slow and dumpy and out of shape. He has good cardio and is quick for a Heavyweight. Like he always has, Arlovski will also come into the fight in terrific shape and will actually be the bigger man but Boser is quicker and moves better.
Boser has absolutely canned his last two opponents. He came in and destroyed Philipe Lins in spectacular fashion. He followed that up with a destruction of Raphael Pessoa in similar spectacular fashion. But the fight that really showed me how good Boser can be is when he took on highly touted Heavyweight prospect Ciryl Gane and lost a unanimous decision. Although he lost, he fought Gane well. He was outmatched and Gane was the far superior athlete but Boser had moments in that fight. He wasn’t out of his element and he showed me a lot.
Arlovski is what Arlovski is. He’s an older Heavyweight that is a pros pro. Always comes in on weight, in good shape with good cardio. There’s nothing but respect for Andrei but he’s aging and slowing down. At this stage in his career, Andrei is looking to out strike his opponents and squeak out decision wins. I don’t think he can do that here against Boser.
I see Andrei and Boser trading in a slow first round. Then, I see Boser picking up the pace in 2 and 3 and I can see an easy unanimous decision or late KO by the surging Tanner Boser.
The Pick: Tanner Boser -300 by UD or KO (4.5 out of 5)
MORE DOGS TO PLAY ON THIS CARD: Eduardo Garagorri +200, Trevin Giles -100 and Ian Heinisch -100
(Dogs are 5-2-1 YTD +$480)